AR
4 September 2025,08:04
Daily Market Analysis
4 September 2025, 08:04
Key Takeaways:
*Sterling Slips on PMI Weakness – UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.0, its sharpest order contraction in nearly two years, signaling rising economic fragility.
*BoE Policy in Question – Weak data is fueling speculation about the Bank of England’s response, with markets watching services and construction PMIs for spillover risks.
*Politics Add Pressure – Trade tensions, UK vulnerability, and French political uncertainty limited Sterling’s ability to benefit from dollar weakness.
Market Summary:
The British Pound faced renewed pressure during Thursday’s session as disappointing economic data and lingering trade uncertainties overshadowed broader dollar weakness. Sterling’s decline followed the release of August’s UK Manufacturing PMI, which slumped to 47.0—marking the sharpest contraction in new orders in nearly two years. Manufacturers cited client caution, U.S. tariff uncertainties, and elevated cost pressures as key factors behind the downturn, highlighting the economy’s vulnerability to global trade disruptions.
Political concerns also weighed on sentiment. While the Bank of England has maintained a cautious stance toward monetary easing, the weak activity data has raised questions about the UK’s economic resilience amid broader global headwinds. Traders are increasingly attentive to upcoming services and construction PMI readings for confirmation of whether the manufacturing slowdown is spreading to other sectors of the economy.
Geopolitical developments provided limited support. Reports of reduced hostilities between Russia and Ukraine briefly improved risk sentiment, though the Pound failed to capitalize meaningfully amid broader concerns about European political stability—particularly in France, where Prime Minister Bayrou’s government faces a crucial confidence vote. The currency’s inability to rally despite dollar weakness underscores its domestic challenges.
In the near term, Sterling is likely to remain sensitive to domestic data releases and broader risk flows, with traders awaiting clearer signals on both the UK’s economic trajectory and the Bank of England’s policy response to deteriorating growth conditions.
GBPUSD, H4:
GBP/USD is hovering near 1.3540, attempting to build momentum after reclaiming the 1.3485 support area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3595, with a breakout opening the path toward 1.3775, while failure to clear higher could trigger a pullback toward 1.3485 and 1.3345.
Momentum indicators are leaning constructively. The RSI stands at 60, holding above the midline and suggesting buyers retain an upper hand, though not yet in overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD has turned marginally positive, with a potential bullish crossover forming, hinting at building upside momentum.
Overall, GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias above 1.3845, with scope to extend gains toward 1.3595 and potentially 1.3775 if bullish pressure accelerates. However, a move back below 1.3485 would expose the pair to deeper losses toward 1.3345 and 1.3250.
Resistance level: 1.3595, 1.3775
Support level:1.3485, 1.3345
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