AR
4 September 2025,08:03
Daily Market Analysis
4 September 2025, 08:03
Key Takeaways:
*HSI dropped over 3% amid selling pressure and a 13% plunge in Meituan shares on weak earnings.
*Southbound inflows are providing liquidity support, helping limit deeper losses in the index.
*HSI is nearing the 26,000 resistance, where a breakout could spark a bullish rally to 3-year highs.
Market Summary:
The Hang Seng Index declined more than 3% over the past week, retreating from recent highs as investors locked in gains amid mixed corporate results and global policy uncertainty. The selloff was amplified by a steep drop in shares of Meituan, which fell more than 13% after reporting disappointing earnings, dragging the broader index lower.
Despite the pullback, underlying sentiment toward Chinese tech equities remains supported by sustained southbound capital flows through the Stock Connect program. This inflow of mainland liquidity has helped buffer the market from more severe losses and is viewed by analysts as a stabilizing factor ahead of key technical and fundamental tests.
Global macro uncertainty has also played a role, as some investors diversify into Hong Kong assets amid shifting expectations for U.S. interest rates. Upcoming U.S. labor market data could further influence foreign flows, depending on its implications for Federal Reserve policy.
Technically, the index is now trading near a critical resistance level around 26,000. A clear breakout above this threshold, particularly if accompanied by strong volume and positive momentum signals, could open the path toward a test of three-year highs. Conversely, failure to overcome this barrier may signal a period of renewed consolidation.
Technical Analysis
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has rebounded sharply from its previous bearish trend, finding solid support above the 24,900.00 level and climbing 2.5% as of writing. This upward move also closed the Fair Value Gap (FVG) created during the prior downtrend, signaling a shift in structure from bearish to bullish.
The index now hovers near a three-year high, trading just below the psychological resistance at 26,000. A decisive break above this critical level could confirm a bullish breakout and open the door for a stronger rally.
On the technical front, the RSI has climbed above the midline, indicating strengthening momentum, while the MACD is consolidating near the zero line, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish bias as the market seeks confirmation for the next move.
Resistance level:25,720.00, 25,925.00
Support level: 25,450.00, 24,900.00
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